Inflation is 3.4 percent, but fuel rose 27 percent

A litre of diesel cost an average of 2.499 euros in the Netherlands in September 2026. On 22 October 2026, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that consumer confidence slipped again, from -33 to -34. The official inflation rate of 3.4 percent sounds mild. If you fill up every week, it feels different.

The recovery in confidence has stalled

Every month, CBS asks people what they think of the economy, their own finances and making big purchases. The score runs from -100, everyone negative, to +100, everyone positive. At -34, the Netherlands sits far below the average of -12 over the last twenty years. The lowest reading ever was -59, in September and October 2022.

The gloom sits in a telling place. The verdict on people's own financial situation over the past twelve months fell from -16 to -19. On big purchases such as furniture, people turned slightly more positive, from -35 to -34. They are looking back at their wallets, and those feel lighter.

The answer starts in March.

In March pump prices jumped and the mood dropped

CBS tracks a price index for motor fuels, with 2025 set at 100. In February 2026 it stood at 105.32, in March at 117.98. Confidence then fell from -30 in March to -44 in April and -46 in May. CBS itself draws no link between the two, but the sequence is hard to ignore.

Filling up has not become cheaper since. In September, motor fuels were 27.2 percent more expensive than a year earlier. Petrol cost an average of 2.448 euros per litre, diesel 2.499 euros. According to CBS, those fuel prices were the main reason inflation rose in September.

In numbers: You fill up twice a month with 50 litres of diesel. In August 2026 you paid 100 times 2.369 euros, a total of 236.90 euros. In September that became 100 times 2.499 euros, a total of 249.90 euros. That is 13 euros more in a single month, and 156 euros a year if prices stay there.

So how can the average stay at 3.4 percent?

Your own inflation can be far from 3.4 percent

The inflation rate is an average over everything households buy together. You do not buy the average. While fuel got more expensive, food in September was 1.7 percent cheaper than a year earlier.

If you live in a city, cycle and mostly buy groceries, you barely notice this inflation. If you drive to work every day, you notice it at every fill up. How inflation works and why your savings account feels it is covered in What is inflation.

But why is fuel so expensive?

Expensive oil keeps interest rates high too

A barrel of Brent, the international benchmark for oil, cost more than 111 dollars on 20 October, the highest level since May. That is reported by Crypto Insiders, a crypto site that earns money from trading platform advertising and so has an interest in attention for markets. The site points to less oil coming out of the Middle East and more expensive shipping.

Expensive energy feeds into transport, factories and eventually shop prices. Across the euro area, inflation rose to 3.8 percent in September, CBS reports. The European Central Bank aims for 2 percent and raised its rate by 0.25 percentage point in September, Crypto Insiders writes.

What does that mean? CBS publishes two inflation figures. The Dutch CPI came in at 3.4 percent in September, the European HICP for the Netherlands at 3.0 percent. The ECB looks at the HICP, because it is measured the same way in every EU country.

A higher rate makes borrowing more expensive and saving more attractive. Crypto Insiders also notes that less money then flows into risky investments such as bitcoin. What that did this month is in the crypto week of October.

Savings earning less than 3.4 percent lose buying power

If you have saved 10,000 euros, at 3.4 percent inflation you need 10,340 euros a year from now to buy the same things. Every percentage point of interest below inflation costs you 100 euros of buying power per year on that amount.

In Belgium, Statbel measures inflation. There, most wages and benefits follow prices through automatic indexation, with a delay. In the Netherlands it depends on your collective labour agreement or your employer. If your pay does not rise, you carry the price increase yourself.

What can you do about it?

Your own numbers say more than the average

You cannot change the oil price, but you can check your own spending. Four things to check this week:

• Compare the interest on your savings account with 3.4 percent.
• Check whether your energy contract is fixed or variable and when it ends.
• Add up what you spend on fuel each month and whether working from home, carpooling or public transport saves money.
• Read whether your collective labour agreement includes price compensation.

Tip: Put your bank statements from September 2025 and September 2026 side by side. Add up what you spent on fuel, energy and groceries. That shows your own inflation instead of the average. If your savings cannot absorb a more expensive month, read Emergency fund first.

Questions to ask

• What interest do I earn on my savings, and is it above or below 3.4 percent?
• How much of my monthly budget goes to fuel and energy?
• Does my pay keep up with prices, through my labour agreement or indexation?
• Is my fixed mortgage rate period or my energy contract ending soon?

This text is an explanation, not financial advice.

Sources

• CBS, Consumers a little more negative in October, 22 October 2026
• CBS, Inflation rises to 3.4 percent in September, 13 October 2026
• CBS, Inflation stood at 3.4 percent in September according to flash estimate, 2 October 2026
• Crypto Insiders, Oil price rises to five month high and fuels inflation worries, 20 October 2026