AI could change 40% of jobs worldwide

On October 12, 2026, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that artificial intelligence could change, reduce or eliminate around 40% of jobs worldwide. In advanced economies, that share could reach 60%. Young people looking for their first job may feel the effects particularly strongly. But the figure does not mean that four out of every ten workers will soon be unemployed.

The IMF warns of a rapidly changing labour market

The warning came during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Bangkok. Georgieva described AI as a slow moving wave of disruption for the labour market. In her view, the technology will change not only how people work, but also how companies hire and how governments collect taxes.

The IMF is an international organisation that supports economic stability and helps countries address financial problems. Its work includes analysing economic growth, employment and risks to the global economy. Its figures are therefore relevant, but they are not an exact forecast of future redundancies.

The 40% estimate means AI could affect a job. Some employees may gain tools that help them work faster. In other roles, AI could take over tasks and reduce the need for staff. In the most extreme cases, an entire role could disappear. These are different outcomes and should not be treated as the same thing.

Young people may find it harder to get their first job

At the same meeting, Singapore's president warned that graduates could face fewer opportunities for their first job. Many people start their careers with routine tasks. They gather information, prepare reports, enter data or answer standard questions. AI is increasingly able to perform this kind of work.

If a company needs fewer junior employees, it becomes harder to gain experience. That can affect the next step in a career too. Someone who cannot find a first job has fewer opportunities to progress into a specialist role.

However, it is not certain that entry level opportunities will shrink everywhere. Companies may also create new roles involving AI, oversight and customer service. The outcome will depend on the sector, education and how employers introduce the technology.

Some jobs face greater exposure than others

Administration, customer service, translation and parts of marketing and financial services include tasks that AI can support or take over. Programmers and analysts are also affected. This is not limited to basic work. AI can assess text, compare information and summarise complex documents.

The International Labour Organization, or ILO, examined how generative AI could affect occupations in 2025. It estimated that around one in four workers worldwide has a job with some exposure to generative AI. The researchers expect most of these jobs to change rather than disappear completely.

Work involving physical activity, unpredictable situations or personal contact is often harder to automate entirely. Examples include some care tasks, maintenance and technical work carried out on site. AI can still help with planning, administration or diagnosis. No occupation is automatically safe.

AI can also make employees more productive

AI can help an employee gather information, check documents or prepare a first draft of a report more quickly. That may leave more time for customers and difficult decisions. It can improve productivity, meaning a worker can produce more in the same amount of time.

A 2024 study by the Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development, or OECD, found that four in five surveyed workers said AI improved their performance. Three in five said it made their work more enjoyable. The research does not prove that every worker benefits, but it shows that AI can be more than a replacement.

Businesses are also adopting the technology more widely. In December 2025, Eurostat reported that 20.0% of EU businesses with at least ten employees used AI. The figure was 13.5% in 2024. Among large businesses, the share reached 55.03% in 2025. Adoption is already under way, although these figures do not show how many jobs have disappeared.

The economic gains will not automatically reach everyone

AI can make companies more efficient and support economic growth. In October 2026, the IMF highlighted the role of AI investment in sustaining global economic growth. At the same time, the organisation warned that the benefits could be distributed unevenly.

If companies produce more with fewer employees, a larger share of the gains could go to capital and corporate profits. Workers who lose jobs or have less bargaining power would not automatically benefit. Governments could also collect less income tax if economic activity shifts from human labour towards technology and capital.

This outcome is not inevitable everywhere. It does explain why education, social protection and tax policy have become part of the debate. The question is not only how much work AI takes over, but also who receives the benefits.

A universal basic income is not a settled solution

If AI changes a large amount of work over time, income security becomes an important question. A universal basic income means people receive regular payments that are not directly dependent on employment or income. The idea has been debated for years as a possible response to automation.

However, AI affecting jobs does not create an automatic right to a basic income. In its 2024 analysis, the IMF highlighted social safety nets, education and support for vulnerable workers. A universal basic income would be a political choice requiring decisions about funding and payment levels.

Other options include retraining, help with finding work and better access to education. The right approach will depend on the actual effects and the decisions governments make. In the Netherlands and Belgium, any new income scheme would first need to be established through political and legal processes.

Questions to ask before worrying about your job

• Which tasks in my occupation can AI already perform?
• Which skills can I develop to work effectively with AI?
• Does my employer offer training or support for new technology?
• How much of my work depends on human judgement, experience or personal contact?

The IMF figures deserve attention, but they do not predict how many people will actually lose their jobs. They point to a major change in which policy, training and employer decisions will shape how the effects are distributed.

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal or career advice.

Sources

• Reuters, IMF says AI investment keeps global growth around 3% but brings massive disruption, October 12, 2026
• IMF, AI Will Transform the Global Economy, January 14, 2024
• ILO, Generative AI and jobs: A 2025 update, May 20, 2025
• OECD, Using AI in the workplace, March 15, 2024
• Eurostat, 20% of EU enterprises use AI technologies, December 11, 2025